Importance of Hansen’s Models

Chris O’Neill said on Deltiod

Gee, and I thought that twenty year old model was the be-all and end-all of climate forecasting.

My respnose was:

Chris, Hansen’s 20-yer old models presented in #109 are very important. They  are the  cornerstone of IPCC/your government policy. If they are wrong then your government is going the wrong way on CO2.

Yet in 2006 Hansen said here that Scenario B “was dead on the money”. It would now appear that he was wrong. Planet Earth appears to be tracking below the zero-emmissions Scenario C and Scenario B is not “dead on the money”; it is way too high.

GISS Temperature Data January-June 2008

Eli Rabbett re #192 on Deltioid wrote that

“This is the one with January standing for all of 2008”.

My response to Eli was that I stated that the temperature figures were for the first six months of the year. You can check the GISS surface station figures here or the land ocean data here.

I summarise the GISS Jan-Jun 2008 figures below for ease of reference:

GISS Temperature Data 

2008      Land       Land-
         Stations      Ocean

Jan               35             14
Feb               32             25
Mar               72             60
Apr               52             42
May              45             39
Jun               26             26
Average = 44           34


  1. Surface Station Data Jan-Jun 2008 average = 0.44 °C.
  2. Land-Ocean Data Jan-Jun 2008 average = 0.34 °C.

The latest figures are well below my original Jan-May graph posted in Deltoid #190. It is evident from my graph, and the latest GISS figures, that the 2008 temperatures will be significantly below recent temperatures. They will probably be as low as 1995 or even, God forbid, 1990! It would appear that our planet is currently tracking below Hansen’s Zero-Emissions Scenario C. Good old planet Earth!

I reiterate, is it possible that a stabilisation of temperatures and/or global cooling, as predicted by the solar-cycle/cosmic-ray fraternity, is beginning to happen?

Eli, I look forward to your response.