Anton, there has been a very slight improvement in the recent wind capacity factor.
However, the recent capacity factor (CF) has still reduced from an average CF₁ = 30.6% on 11-Dec-2022 to an average CF₃ = 24.8% on 22-Jun-2025, as shown in Figures 1 and 2.
Figure 1: Recent Nameplate Capacity compared with Power Generated & Reduction Capacity Factor
Figure 2: Reduction in Recent Capacity Factor & Capacity Factor Degradation
This reduction equates to a capacity factor degradation of 2.15% p.a., which would lead to a reduction in capacity factor of 42.0% over a 25-year lifespan, i.e., a reduction in average capacity factor from 28.2% to 16.4%.
This reduction in capacity factor is not included in the levelised cost of electricity estimates produced by CSIRO in its GenCost reports. Consequently, GenCost significantly underestimates the true cost of wind power.
In summary, it would appear that adding new wind turbines does not improve the capacity factor, and I can only suggest that this may be due to one or more of the following reasons:
- Newer wind farms being sited in less-than-ideal locations – the best wind sites having already been chosen by earlier projects.
- Older wind turbines degrading at a significantly higher rate than the overall average, which would cancel out the (expected) better performance of newer turbines.
- A reduction in wind speed, perhaps due to climate change and/or weather.