Great article Jaime.
I recently came under fire on the Skeptical Science (SkS) website for posting this diagram which showed that the 1970s global cooling scare was not a myth.
The diagram shows that the number of cooling papers greatly outnumbered the warming papers. However, from the amount of fire that I took at SkS, it would appear that the old WWII saying that the flak gets heaviest when you are over the target is correct.
Although the wind power generated last week was quite high, it also illustrates the ups and downs of wind power. I call this phenomenon a “squeeze box” energy system because its power output resembles someone playing an accordion. Let me explain below.
Figure 1 highlights the two largest surges and collapses in wind power output in recent times.
Additionally, the following fluctuations in weekly wind power output in 2025 are evident from Figure 1:
The above surges and collapses in wind power have occurred at nearly weekly intervals in recent times – hence the moniker the “Squeeze Box Phenomenon”. Furthermore, this phenomenon is not a one-off because Figure 1 shows similar surges and collapses in wind power from June to July in 2024.
If coal-fired power stations showed the same erratic “Squeeze Box Phenomenon” as wind farms — frequently going offline and returning at almost weekly intervals — imagine the outcry there would be from the renewables lobby.
Although the wind power generated last week was the highest ever, it was still only the fifth highest capacity factor at 48.9% as shown in Figure 1.
Figure 1: Weekly Capacity Factor showing Highs, Lows & Capacity Factor Degradation
However, what is of greater concern is the very large excursions in the power generated. For example, Figure 2 shows the following large variations in power output:
Figure 2: Wind Power Generated highlighting some Recent Rises & Falls in Output
In the last three weeks alone, wind power rose by 2631 MW, then fell by 2375 MW, only to rise again by 2631 MW. These power excursions are the equivalent of three or four coal-fired power stations suddenly going offline and then coming back online a week later.
Imagine the outcry there would be from the renewables lobby if our ageing coal-fired power stations were performing as badly as wind power.
Anton, there has been a very slight improvement in the recent wind capacity factor.
However, the recent capacity factor (CF) has still reduced from an average CF₁ = 30.6% on 11-Dec-2022 to an average CF₃ = 24.8% on 22-Jun-2025, as shown in Figures 1 and 2.
Figure 1: Recent Nameplate Capacity compared with Power Generated & Reduction Capacity Factor
Figure 2: Reduction in Recent Capacity Factor & Capacity Factor Degradation
This reduction equates to a capacity factor degradation of 2.15% p.a., which would lead to a reduction in capacity factor of 42.0% over a 25-year lifespan, i.e., a reduction in average capacity factor from 28.2% to 16.4%.
This reduction in capacity factor is not included in the levelised cost of electricity estimates produced by CSIRO in its GenCost reports. Consequently, GenCost significantly underestimates the true cost of wind power.
In summary, it would appear that adding new wind turbines does not improve the capacity factor, and I can only suggest that this may be due to one or more of the following reasons:
